Thanksgiving vs Black Friday: How to Avoid the Overspending Trap (Plan Inside)
Scarcity 2 Sovereignty · 16 min read
Last reviewed: October 2026. Deals, dates and survey figures change every season, so confirm prices and return policies directly with each store before you buy.
I want you to picture this in your mind. It's the Wednesday before Thanksgiving. Your cart holds a turkey breast, two bags of potatoes and a pie you swore you'd bake yourself. Then your phone buzzes: "Doorbusters start now. 14 hours left." You tap it for one second. Forty minutes later, you've checked out of two different stores. Did you noticed what just happened?
Thanksgiving and Black Friday sit one day apart, so they drain the same wallet in the same weekend. They also use the same tricks: a deadline, a crowd and a quiet fear that spending less means letting someone down. In this post, I'm putting the two side by side, shows what the research says about how Americans really spend, and gives you a plan that survives the weekend.
I'm going to cover the following;
- A side-by-side comparison of Thanksgiving and Black Friday spending pressure.
- Why both weekends hit the same wallet, with real numbers involved.
- Nine surprising findings I observed most shoppers never hear about.
- The psychology behind the rush and why the regret comes later.
- Nine overspending traps and the fix for each.
- A buy, wait or skip guide you can use for better awareness.
- A step-by-step spending plan you can set up this week
- This year's calendar and what to do if you've already overspent
Thanksgiving vs Black Friday: How They Compare
They feel different. One is warm and one is loud. But the overspending mechanics are close cousins.
| Thanksgiving | Black Friday | |
|---|---|---|
| What pushes you | Tradition, hosting pride, family expectation | Scarcity, countdown clocks, fear of missing out |
| Where the money goes | Food, drinks, decor, travel | Gifts, tech, clothes, treats for yourself |
| The trick | "A proper dinner needs all of this" | "Only 2 left at this price" |
| The deadline | One date, no flexibility | Hours, minutes, "while supplies last" |
| Hidden costs | Extra dishes, travel, leftovers you'll toss | Add-ons, shipping padding, returns, financing |
| When regret hits | Often a few days later, on the card statement | Often the next morning, when the box arrives |
| How retailers use it | Cheap turkey pulls you into the store | Doorbusters pull you into the store |
That last row is the part most people miss. Both weekends start with a low-price hook. Then the store sells you everything else.
The Weekend Stack: One Wallet Pays for Both
This right here's why planning for dinner alone doesn't work.
In 2025, the National Retail Federation counted a record 202.9 million people shopping between Thanksgiving Day and Cyber Monday. The average shopper spent $337.86 on holiday items that weekend, and about two thirds of that went to gifts.
At the same time, one survey by Talker Research (shared by Self) put the average cost of Thanksgiving at $952 per person who celebrates. That covered food, drinks, decor and travel. These are different surveys with different methods, so don't add them up and treat the total as a fact. But the picture is clear: for many households, the same few days carry a dinner bill, a travel bill and a shopping bill at once.
9 Things Most People Never Hear About Thanksgiving and Black Friday Spending
1. The Supermarket Is the Busiest Stop
In the NRF's 2025 survey, 47% of Thanksgiving weekend shoppers went to supermarkets. That edged out online shopping at 45%. So your grocery run and your deal hunting overlap in time, mood and budget. Many people treat them as separate, and their account balance doesn't.
2. Black Friday Isn't the Starting Line Anymore
By Thanksgiving weekend in 2025, 84% of consumers had already begun holiday shopping. A Yahoo-commissioned survey released this month found that nearly a quarter of shoppers started over the summer, almost double last year's share. If you wait for Black Friday to "begin" shopping, you may be one of the last to the party.
3. Thanksgiving Day Is a Shopping Day Now
Most big stores close on Thanksgiving, but the apps don't. Adobe measured $6.4 billion in online sales on Thanksgiving Day in 2025. Its forecast for this year says Thanksgiving is expected to be the strongest mobile shopping day. That means plenty of purchases happen from a phone, or from a couch, while you're having a nice time or relaxing.
4. Turkey and Doorbusters Use the Same Trick
Grocers often feature whole turkeys at very low prices before the holiday to pull shoppers into the store. Retailers also advertise doorbuster deals in limited quantities. Consumer Reports has long noted that doorbusters are designed to get you through the door so the store can sell you something else. It's the same idea in two outfits. The bargain gets you there, and the cart does the rest.
5. Waiting Can Pay, and So Can Skipping
A consumer group in the UK called Which? tracks Black Friday prices every year. Its 2023 study found 92% of the deals it checked offered no unique value, because the price was the same or lower at another time of year. In 2024, all 175 deals it examined were the same price or cheaper in the six months before or after. That research covers UK retailers, not a US verdict but the lesson holds: a "sale" isn't always the lowest price.
Adobe also forecasts deeper discounts as the season builds. It expects roughly 14% off in early November, 21% off just before Thanksgiving and 30% off during Cyber Week. If true, patience can beat panic.
6. Some Black Friday Products Are Built for Black Friday
Consumer Reports has explained for years that some Black Friday TVs are "derivative" models, made specifically for the sale. They often have fewer features or cheaper parts. Some perform well and some don't. Their advice: check the exact model number and see if it sells the rest of the year. Their coverage also says top TV prices often show up around the Super Bowl and in late winter. That guidance is a few years old, so verify it for the product you want.
7. Most Holiday Debt Is a Surprise
In LendingTree's 2024 survey, only 44% of people who took on holiday debt had expected to. In its 2025 survey, 37% of Americans took on holiday debt, averaging $1,223. Among them, 41% were still paying off the year before, 59% felt stressed and 47% regretted spending as much as they did. Most of that debt sat on credit cards, with buy now, pay later and store cards close behind.
The wider numbers match. The New York Fed says credit card balances rose $44 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025, to a record $1.28 trillion.
8. Buy Now, Pay Later Isn't Risk-Free
Adobe says buy now, pay later drove about $20 billion of online holiday spending in 2025 and forecasts a record $21.3 billion this year. A LendingTree survey from April 2026 found 47% of users had paid late on a BNPL loan in the past year. That's up six points from the year before. Earlier LendingTree research also found many users wrongly assumed on-time payments always build credit. Reporting rules are changing, so check your provider's policy before you rely on it.
9. You're Also Shopping for Yourself
Deloitte found that 47% of Gen Z and 43% of millennials planned to buy gifts for themselves. A Shopify survey found 64% of Black Friday and Cyber Monday shoppers were at least likely to buy something that wasn't a gift. Self-gifting isn't wrong. It just rarely makes the budget, because it isn't on the list. So you see, it's part of the spending disguising as not.
Why Both Weekends Work on You
Researchers who study sales say the pattern is predictable. A marketing professor at the University of British Columbia, JoAndrea Hoegg, explains that a short, huge sale creates scarcity. That triggers competition: you want to beat everyone else. Winning feels good, and shoppers feel smarter than the crowd. For those who bought a lot they hadn't planned, remorse tends to follow soon after.
A Yale School of Management write-up cited a 2022 US and UK survey in which only 38% of Black Friday shoppers said they'd strictly buy what they'd planned. The rest were open to impulse.
Thanksgiving works through a different lever, obligation. You want the table to look generous, so you add one more dish, one more bottle, one more flight home. Same result, softer packaging.
9 Overspending Traps and How to Beat Each One
| Trap | How it works | The fix |
|---|---|---|
| Early-sale creep | October events make November feel like round two | Set one weekend ceiling and count October purchases against it |
| Countdown clocks | "Only 2 left" triggers a race | Move items to a wishlist and wait 24 hours |
| Padding the cart | Adding items to hit a free-shipping line | Check whether shipping costs less than the extra item |
| Store credit cards | A "20% off today" signup offer | Skip them unless you'd pay in full every month |
| Buy now, pay later | Small payments hide the total | Only use it for something already in your budget, and calendar every due date |
| Self-gifting | "Treat yourself" slips past your list | Give yourself a set treat budget, written down |
| Returns | You buy "to decide later" | Learn return windows first, and keep receipts and packaging |
| Hosting and travel creep | Extra dishes, extra stops, extra fuel | Fix the menu and the route early, and ask guests to bring a dish |
| Phone at the table | Deals arrive during dinner | Put the phone away or turn off retailer notifications |
Buy, Wait or Skip: A Quick Guide
| Situation | My take |
|---|---|
| Something already on your list, at a price you've tracked | Buy if the price matches your tracked low |
| A big-ticket item like a TV | Compare the exact model number and consider waiting for late-winter sales |
| A "doorbuster" with an unfamiliar model number | Be cautious. Check reviews and see whether it sells all year |
| An item you never planned to buy | Skip it, or wait 24 hours |
| Gifts for the people on your list | Buy early deals only if the price is really lower |
| Anything requiring a new store card or financing | Skip it unless you'd pay it off immediately |
Your Black Friday and Thanksgiving Spending Plan
Step 1: Set one weekend ceiling. Decide your total for dinner, travel, gifts and treats combined. Not separate budgets. One number.
Step 2: Fund Thanksgiving first. Dinner and travel are fixed and emotional. Pay for those first, and let gifts and treats fit around them. If you're hosting, my small-space budget approach starts with a smaller guest list and a simple menu.
Step 3: Write the list before the sales. For each item, list the person, the item and your maximum price. Anything not on the list waits 24 hours.
Step 4: Check price history. Before buying, look at price history. Tools like CamelCamelCamel (for Amazon) or Google Shopping's price tracking show whether a "deal" is real. Which? names such sites in its guidance.
Step 5: Pick how you'll pay. Use debit, cash envelopes or one card you can pay in full. A cash envelope makes the limit physical, and my post on the Cash Envelope System: Old-School Budgeting Without Cash, in Our Modern World shows how.
Step 6: Plan any BNPL like a bill. If you use it, put every due date in your calendar and use one provider at a time.
Step 7: Know the return rules. Retailers expect about 17% of holiday sales to be returned, and Adobe noted that many stores tightened policies. Check the window before you buy.
An example split (illustrative numbers): Say you've set aside $600. You might use $250 for Thanksgiving, $250 for gifts, $50 for a treat and $50 as a buffer. Your numbers will differ, but the habit helps: every dollar has a job before the sales start.
This Year's Calendar (as of October 2026)
Current-cycle details. Confirm exact dates with each retailer.
Thanksgiving is Thursday, November 26. Black Friday is November 27, and Cyber Monday is November 30. The shopping season started early: Target's Circle Week, Walmart's October deals and Amazon's Prime Big Deal Days were reported to run during the first two weeks of October.
NRF's holiday forecast for this season isn't published yet, so I haven't quoted it. Yahoo's survey says shoppers plan to spend an average of $849, up from $788 last year. Compare that figure with your own number. You don't have to match the average.
If You've Already Overspent
First, don't panic. Second, look at the actual numbers.
- List every holiday purchase: Include BNPL loans, which are easy to forget.
- Pay cards in full if you can: If not, put as much as possible toward the highest-interest balance.
- Check return windows: Anything unneeded may still be returnable.
- Pause new spending: A no-spend week can reset your habits.
- Run a January audit: My post on ChatGPT Budget Analysis: How to Audit Your Last 3 Months of Expenses in 5 Minutes shows a quick way.
A quick safety note: Be wary of sites and messages that look too good to be true. Stick to official apps and websites, and don't click unexpected "order problem" links.
Black Friday and Thanksgiving Spending FAQs
Is Black Friday really the best time to buy?
Sometimes, but not always. Some deals are the same price or cheaper at other times of year, so check price history.
How do I avoid overspending on Black Friday?
Set one weekend ceiling, write a list with maximum prices, wait 24 hours on anything unplanned and pay with a method that has a hard limit.
Is buy now, pay later safe for holiday shopping?
It can work if the purchase is already in your budget. But late payments are common, so plan every due date.
Should I budget for Thanksgiving and Black Friday separately?
No. They hit the same wallet in the same weekend. Set one combined ceiling.
The Bottom Line
You don't have to skip Black Friday or scale back your Thanksgiving to stay solvent. You just need a ceiling, a list and a pause between the notification and the checkout button. Fund the dinner, plan the gifts and treat the rest like it needs to earn its place.
If clothes are your weak spot, my post on Cost Per Wear Formula to Stop Overspending on Clothes (Learn the simple math) gives you one number that can cool an impulse buy.
Next: How to Host Your First Thanksgiving on a Budget in a Small Apartment (For $150 to $200)
Also: Holiday Assistance Programs 2026: Free Toys, Meals & Utility Help Before Winter
Statistics come from named surveys and reports and reflect the groups and years they studied. Prices and policies change, so this is general information, not financial advice.